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We are still hurry when it comes to crypto, it is very clear.
Some are earlier than others. It goes to investors, users and, if we are becoming generous, then the blockchain network itself.
Today’s newsletter recalls one of the most expensive bets in the history of bitcoin, at least only counts the bets done outside trading and investment contexts.
Seven years ago, Bitkinar Jimmy Song and Etherium co-founder who made Lubin his famous First step On whether the Etharium app will receive a certain amount of traction at the next half decade (along the last date of May 2023).
All things were considered, lubin would have been lost. Has anything changed in the last two years?
On this day
The bet went like this:
If a handful of Ethereum app had a zodiac sign of active users with a light to popular iPhone app, the song would have to pay a $ 500,000 Eth to Lubin.
Otherwise, Lubin will need to pay an equal amount of bitcoin for the song.
To win Lubin, at least five atherium “daps” will need to reach 10,000 daily active users And At least 100,000 active users per calendar, for at least six calendar months in a 12 -month stretch.
No one actually uses the word “Dapp”, however, we would just call them apps. The real kicker was that the prize money meant to be judged in ETH and BTC prices at the time of The BT in May 2018.
Therefore, Song would have had to pay 810.8 Eth more than $ 2.1 million, while Lubin had to pledge 69.74 BTC, or $ 7.25 million in today’s money.
Di, there is no real way to determine how many active users are actually in any blockchain app, ethrium or otherwise, active address metric is how incredible.
As Blockworks Research puts itActive address matters Users are not a measure of developmentSo the stakes were really ruined from the beginning.
Nevertheless, let’s suspend mistrust to see how bets are played and Lubin really followed through mediator and all.
We already know that Lubin may have been lost. Spiral It was found that there were actually five applications on the atherium, which were the required levels of use at that time: circles, Openia, Tithi, Uniswap and wrapped ETH.
Are circles, tiths and wrapped Aths actually “dapps”? Not really, so it was safe to say that the song was the winner, who would have put Lubin millions of dollars in the hole.
Then, the stakes were never officially to start. Downhearted!
As if the song would have won if the stakes would spread for seven years instead of five: not really. Uniswap still comes from the minimum limit, but apps such as banana guns, 1 inch and metamasks are not yet above 10,000 active addresses, which is minimal to qualify, per, per, per. Aartitimis data.
To not mention, Aadhaar, Aadhaar, optimism and arbitrum 2018, such as Etharium layer -2, were not around, so perhaps this condition would look different if it was created today.
In any case, the original thesis of the song was that if a popular app was present at the atherium, finally, a similar app (“cheap, sharp, more scalable, more maintainable and upgradable”) would come together on a more centralized platform and would steal those users.
Seven years later, those threats still exist, even if the pie that is for the tombs is very large.
On May 14, 2025 at 12:30 pm, updated in ET: Bet’s correct price.
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