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“It affects me to be wrong when I know I’m right.”
– Molier
American Equity returned to high levels of all time this week despite all worrisome politics: tariff, fed-cooking, BLS drama.
Or market up Because Of politics?
A New research paper This suggests that a high level of political disagreement is estimated to have positive returns for shares.
The authors used a large language model to create 216 “virtual investors” with different political and social ideas, asked them how they would react to the stock market news years, and found shares promoting the most disagreement gave better returns.
It indicates a lot: disagreeing about politics is at an all -time high level, so perhaps it is understandable that there are stocks too?
If yes, there should be many more benefits to come.
Another Academic study It was found that “many parties explain factual questions about economic conditions,” and they answer such questions.
It also explains some things: Economists disappointed that the ideas of people’s economy are rapidly a task of their politics. As it is revealed, this is because they think questions about the economy Are About politics.
The reactions became very accurate when researchers offered monetary incentives to answer questions.
Perhaps the same happens in the markets, as well as: prices fall on the initial wave of disagreement, then the drop in the form of retaliation encourages people to see the facts again.
But this is not a case of clear-eyed professionals taking advantage of biased retail investors- Another study It is revealed that professionals are also misled by their politics.
Researchers found, “The Republican-condensed forecast project indicates a high increase of 0.3–0.4 percent when the Republican found the democratic-condensed forecast,” the researchers found.
“Forecast accuracy shows a uniform biased pattern: Republican-condensed forecasts are less accurate under Republican Presidents, showing that biased optimism affects the forecast performance.”
I am sure it works in the other direction as well, therefore, there should be a lot of opportunities for fair investors … no matter who is in the White House.
Can investors have growing bias in a golden age?
Even the worldly bureau of labor statistics is a point of political disagreement, there may be a lot to look forward to investors.
Let’s see if we can help with disagree on some charts.
Sales, profits down:
Meta said that last week it is making a high comeback on its huge AI investments as it makes its advertisements more effective. The rest of the corporate America has not yet benefited.
If you are not paying for the product, then the products are you:
Meta is very good in targeting advertisements, it turns off a revenue of $ 25 from each user each and every month.
No-Kalin 493:
The Mag 7 continues to increase earnings at a speed of double digits, but the rest of the S&P is expected to increase by 3% or less in the last three quarters of the year-less than the rate of malignancy.
US stock market is narrow and expensive:
NVIDIA now makes about 8% of S&P 500 and trades at 58x P/E. In 1994, the largest stock was Ge, which was only 3% of S&P 500 and was traded only at 8X P/E.
Low college children:
The Association of International Educators estimate that new international enrollment in American universities will be more than 40% in the upcoming semester.
Less immigrants, less jobs:
Claudia Saham They say Last week reported the “low labor supply probability of low labor supply of weak jobs reported is the major driver. This is bad news, but probably less worse than to blame weak demand.
Children today, O.
John Burn-Murdoch of Ftte Number runs General Z and Millennials and… .N. Sorry, I thought there was a notice on my phone. Anyway, today the child, isn’t it? The good news for young job seekers is that it will not be difficult to look comparatively good.
Looks comparatively good:
In the US, we are worried that interest on national loan is now eating a record high of 18% of government revenue. In China, however, spend a third province More than 100% Revenue on loan repayment. I am feeling better now – a friend always likes that you are worse than you.
The use of chatgpt is booming:
And GPT-5 is even better-an excellent but incremental and non-easement development of LLM. It is enough that openiAI has enough to justify the $ 500 billion evaluation Allegedly Handed over to yourself? This will not put a rich but ridiculous valuation of 25x about this year’s sales.
This is not very good in the chart, however:
This wrong chart chart was a crime Involved This week’s GPT-5 Livestream. I take that AGI is far away than Sam Altman.
Google is moving forward:
GPT-5 is good as, the genie of Google 3 LLM, also released this week, was even more impressive. Polymarket audms Now give Google a 53% chance of being the best AI model by the end of the year, vs. Openai only 17%.
Disagree?
If you do it can be better.
There is a great weekend, agreed readers.
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