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The US economy contracted in the first three months of the year. This is a decline in the first quarter since 2022.
Today’s advanced GDP estimates for Q1 saw 0.3% annual decline, sent less to stock, and treasury yield and gold higher. Analysts expected GDP to grow 0.4% in the first quarter.
President Trump reported to the office after a day after a day, during that time the S&P500 saw his worst performance (-7.3%after the inauguration day) since the first 100 days of President Nixon’s second term. Nasdaq Composite lost 11%, the biggest decline since the first term of President Bush in 2001.
In a true social post on Wednesday, Trump insisted that “this is Biden’s stock market, not Trump.”
While the “Liberation Day” tariffs came in the beginning of the second quarter, Q1 data suggested that consumers and businesses started preparing more aggressive trade policies at the beginning of the year. The first quarter saw an increase in imports with a decline in consumer and government spending – the correct recipe for a negative print.
The import in Q1 was more than 41%, compared to a decline of 1.9% in the last quarter of 2024. The goods imports were more than 50%, indicating that consumers and business were in the crowd to secure large purchases and increase inventions before the expected tariffs.
GDP print, as required, comes between estimates of Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW (-1.9%) and New York Fed’s NOWCAST (2.6%).
Even today, the Treasury Department announced a plan to rebuild its buyback program. Treasury said that there may be “potential promotion” for the purchase amount, scheduling and frequency, the Treasury said statement,
This update comes after the treasury was sold earlier this month, which increases the yield and increases concerns about a slow economy and to tighten the financial conditions. Increase in yields, Trump said, some of his tariffs were enough to pive on policies; He released a 90-day stagnation at most countries a week after Mukti Day.
Now investors are waiting for the signals that the administration is stopping trade deals with other countries. After the comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Besant that the situation with China is “unstable”, the stocks felt some short -term relief, but the recovery path has since falled on the path.
The GDP print also comes a day after the conference board released the latest consumer confidence figures, which were surprise, surprise, very tarnished. The index fell 7.9 points, which marks the eighth direct monthly fall and lowest reading since 2020.
As the Sens report has written in a note this morning, the founder of the research, Tom Essi, has proved that investors and consumers are sure that the future looks foggy.
Forgiveness to finish on a negative note, but the number is not just a lie! We will return tomorrow with some better news.
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