
Since AI equipment becomes more common in people’s daily work, researchers want to highlight its effects on the job market – especially for early career workers.
A paper from Stanford Digital Economy LabPart of Stanford Institute for Human-Stemed AINow is Get initial evidence That employment has taken a hit for young workers in businesses who use liberal AI the most. Since AI Tools began to be adopted widely at the end of 2022, a split has appeared, and early-career software engineers are among the most difficult hits.
Researchers used data from the largest parole provider in the United States, Automatic data resources (ADP), up-to-date employment and earning data for millions of workers in industries, places and age groups. While other data may take months to come out, researchers published their findings in late August with data through July.
Although the demand for AI skills in the job market has increased, generic AI devices are getting much better in doing some similar tasks associated with initial career workers. AI devices do not have experienced knowledge obtained through years in the workforce, which makes more senior positions less weak.
These charts show that over time the beginning makes a comparison between the initial career, developing and senior workers (all businesses). Each age group is divided into five groups, based on AI exposure, and generalized up to 1 in October 2022 – when the popular generative AI equipment became available to the public.
The trend can be a precursor to more broader changes, and researchers plan to continue tracking data. “It may be that these employment declines in the decline. It may be that other age groups are more or less exposed (for generative AI) and their employment trends have different patterns. So we will continue to track it and see what happens,” Bharat ChandraOne of the authors of the paper and a postdorel fello in Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Most of the AI ”exposed” jobs, AI tools can help or perform with those that people do on daily basis.
So, what does this mean for engineers?
With the rise of the AI coding tool, software engineers have been a theme of much discussion – both media and research. “There are conflicting stories about whether that job is being affected by AI, especially for entry level workers,” says Chander. He and his colleagues wanted to find data on what is happening now.
Since the end of 2022, early career software engineers (between 22 and 30 years) have experienced a decline in employment. At the same time, mid-level and senior employment are stable or grown. This is the most happening in A-exposure jobs, and software engineering is a prominent example.
Since the end of 2022, employment has fallen for the initial-career software developers. Employment for other age groups, however, has seen a slight increase.
Chandra said, for specific businesses, the trend may not be operated by AI alone; Other changes in the technical industry can also cause decline. Nevertheless, the fact that it is in industries suggests that AI has a real impact.
Stanford team also saw a broader category of “computer businesses” American Labor Bureau Classification – including hardware engineers, web developers and more – and similar results were found.
Age between October 2022 and July 2025 and an increase in employment by AI Exposure Group. Quinils 1–3 represent the lowest AI exposure groups, with an increase of 6–13 percent. Quintals 4-5 are the most AI-descent jobs; Employment for the youngest workers in these jobs fell 6 percent.
Uses data from part of analysis Anthropic economic indexWhich provides information about how AI products of anthropic are being used, which includes the estimate of whether the types of questions used for some businesses are more likely to automate work, potentially employ employees, or increase the output of an existing worker.
With this data, the researchers were able to estimate whether the use of AI business usually complements the work of employees or replaces it. The jobs in which the AI Tools Augment work did not see the same decline in employment, including the works that could be automated.
This part of the analysis was based on the index of anthropic alone. “Ideally, we would like to get more data on AI use from other AI companies, as well as open AI and Google,” Chandra is called. (A recent paper of researchers from Microsoft found that Copilot used closely alignment with Estimate Used AI Exposure Stanford Team.)
Moving forward, the team is also expected to expand data on employment outside the United States.
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