key takeaways:
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A unique deviation emerged when long -term bitcoin holders earned profits, while the overall supply organized by this corket continues to increase.
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Bitcoin’s instability has fallen to 10th percent, its lowest range in a decade, trade near all high levels of prices despite prices.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is falling down a few percent from its all-time high $ 111,800, and the data of Onchain Analytics provider Glasnode reveals the “unique dynamic” of this cycle, as long-term holders dominate the money distribution, even at the later bull market. This behavior is rapidly distracted by previous cycles.
Data Highlighting That long -term holder (LTS) -Those is realizing the supernatural advantage by holding BTC for 155 days, a decrease of $ 930 million per day with their net profit/loss. Despite this, the overall supply organized by LTS is still increasing. This is unprecedented at this phase of a rally, where LTH supply declines due to comprehensive benefits.
This dynamic implies that while some long -term investors are selling, a large amount of coins mature in a long -term condition. The report called it a “unique duality” in the market structure, where the ongoing accumulation is more than the pressure sales. This change in the behavior of the holders has been attributed to a large extent for institutional investors and US spot bitcoin ETFs, which are in favor of long -term detention.
The further evidence of this late cycle behavior appears in the realization of profit/loss ratio, currently at 9.4, shows that most of the long -term coins spent are at sufficient profit. Historically, such levels coincide with the enthusiasm of the market and often occur before a local or cycle top, although they can persist for months if in demand.
Related: Michael Sayler dismisses Crypto winter fears, Bitcoin says ‘$ 1m’ is going
The instability of bitcoin tightens and can determine the price search
The current instability profile of bitcoin presents a contradiction. On one hand, the feeling of supply density, which measures how the ownership of bitcoin is centered near the current price, has climbed in recent weeks. This indicates that many investors bought around the level of $ 105,000- $ 110,000. In such a tightly clusted environment, a slight price swings can trigger emotional or business reactions, which increases the risk of sudden instability.
On the other hand, the contrast indications are coming from the derivative market. AT-the-money imped instability (ATM IV)-Gauge of the expected future price swings obtained from a bitcoin option pricing-to fall on the time frame. This shows that traders are not soon for significant value chaos.
same way, data Echoinometrics suggests that the weekly instability of bitcoin has now fallen to 10th percent, less than 90% weeks in the last ten years, despite a new all-time high and firm rally in May despite bitcoin, despite bitcoin. This may indicate that bitcoin can enter a new regime, indicating strong performance without irregular value swings, Which is an attractive setup for institutional investors that focus on risky returns.
The market appears stable, with a dense supply cluster and BTC value at the top of the demand for institutional flow, but tightly wounds. If the new demand exits the profit-carry, the bitcoin may burst through its volatility roof. But if the emotion cracks, the pullback may be faster than expected.
Related: How high can the price of bitcoin be?
There are no investment advice or recommendations in this article. Each investment and business move include risk, and readers should conduct their own research while taking decisions.
