Arthur Hayes has a message for Crypto investors and bitcoins (BTCs) that leads the Federal Reserve Policy to a business deal as the US and China inch: you are watching the wrong institute.
“The real show is in the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn’t matter,” Hayes recently told the coindsk in an interview. “Powell did not make any difference under a democratic rule in 2022, and it no longer makes any difference under a Republican.”
For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a sideshow. The actual monetary liver-piles, their argument, is under the Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, which is quietly shaping global liquidity with buybacks and auction strategies designed to manage a ballooning US loan load.
The flood of liquidity, it has been added to the US inability to spend, which is why Hayes says Bitcoin is growing $ 1 million by 2028.
“We all care about whether there are more dollars in the system than yesterday,” Hayes said. “It all matters.”
But monetary policy is not the only catalyst in his view. Hayes also sees geologists fueling the fire, especially the protesting trade diplomacy between the US and China. As a posture of both sides, Hes says that they will probably sign a deal that looks bold on paper but nothing of the substance changes.
“It’s going to be a deal on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to prove that he is strict on China. Xi needs to prove that he stood for a white person.”
Ultimately, China has proved with its Kovid-era policies that it can withstand more economic pain. With the tariff being politically risky, Hayes feels that the next step would tax on foreign investment, a quiet form of capital control was to reduce America’s dependence on foreign buyers without teasing domestic voters. This is how you get American people to swallow a reality of business.
“The only real policy that actually works is capital control,” he said.
Possibly, there are many tools on the table. Not only taxes on foreign-accepted treasury or equity, but more aggressive thoughts such as forced bond swaps, trade 10-year-old notes for 100-year paper, or prevent more taxes on capital gains from American assets.
It is part of the strategy of rebirth to all Americans without compeling to “buy less goods”, a message that he says that no politician can sell.
“Americans do not like to do hard work,” he said. “They don’t want to tell that you have to consume less.”
China will continue to pile up US property
Meanwhile, China is not going anywhere. Hayes says that it has no choice but to buy American property, even if it otherwise pretends.
“How much items they are buying from America will have to take care of this kind … but mathematically, they can’t stop.”
For Hes, it all leads to a place: more money slices through the system, and soakes bitcoin spillover.
Their portfolio reflects the thesis: 60 to 65 percent in bitcoin, 20 percent in ether (ETH), and the rest called “quality shitcoin”.
Why? Because the market is finally looking for coins that actually work.
“We are in the basic things. People are tired of coins that do nothing,” Hayes said.
