Friday Chart: Crazy Train Investment

This is a section from the breakdown newsletter. To read more versions, Subscribe,

The stock markets created a new height again this week, but the mood is hardly a celebration – probably because it seems to be very difficult to invest.

How do you invest for a long period when 1) can change AI Everything And 2) The US government is $ 38 trillion in the loan (and count)?

This week, Jim Kramer said that the national loan balloons made him “anxious to his children” – so much that he took unimaginable steps to recommend bitcoins as a hedge against monetary controversy.

Unlike anyone, who recently stated as 2022 that he would not “touch Crypto in one million years”.

(Note: 2022 was three years ago.)

I get it, though.

Watching tomorrow Actual exchange Between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, in both hard haats, I was disappointed for the long -term health of my investment portfolio.

When you can relax the world’s only risk-free property-American Treasury–now does not seem free from risk?

You can definitely buy gold, and it has recently worked: the original inflation hedge is 40% in the last one year.

But a inflation hedge is usually all gold: in the last 2,000 years, its actual, inflation-proposed return is about 0%.

This will maintain your purchasing power, which is good, but it will not help you retire.

Also, you do not want to hide it in gold when you start mining Pestiously Or to make it Fusion reactor,

Is bitcoin a better hiding place?

It is also working: the latest inflation hedge is 80% compared to the last one year, strengthening its reputation as digital gold.

But it is difficult to have a 50 -year scene on such a new property.

On that type of timeline, people can be smart as Cliff Essence and Matt Levine Thinking “Most of the possibility” for bitcoin is “zero”.

Finding investments where most are likely No Zero is not as easy as it used to be.

The land has been a reliable safe shelter for centuries – they are not making it too much, as they say.

But in the era of demographic collapse, we can do need Its less.

Its estimated By the year 2038, one -third of the houses in Japan will be left for anyone’s lack to live in them.

I am not sure that when the whole developed world looks like Japan for one or two decades, the land will keep its value.

Nevertheless, if we are moving towards monetary debate it Decade, gold, bitcoin and a portfolio of land are probably a good bet.

But what if this decade outs up surprisingly Good,

If the actual story in the next 10 years either becomes an AI-powered bounce in productivity, then a portfolio of gold, bitcoin and land can do you do to do you to do you over decades of underperformance (and decline in purchasing power).

This is what researchers expect researchers at APOCH AI: They guess “Even when AIS has only 30% automatic of all financially useful functions, the economic growth rate can exceed 20%.”

20%!!!

It is difficult to fathom the world of 20% GDP growth – the US government can also manage to balance its budget in that scenario.

But even unimaginable results can understand upside down.

Economist noted This week that development theorists who try to model the progress of technology have long said that if ideas forget more ideas with enough velocity, development should increase. Boundary” (emphasis added.)

Sam Altman feels where we are going: he Believe that The AIS will be able to incite ideas as soon as next year, and that “can see the arrival of 2027 robots that can work in the real world.”

This will put the market on a crazy train who knows.

If investors feel that labor will soon be out of existence, then there will be a crazy scuffle to secure the largest potential part of the post -labor economy.

“If you think that there is an explosion in economic development, what should you do?” Economist Call“The advice exiting the model is simple: own capital, returns that are going to touch the sky.”

But not just Any capital.

A 20% increase will also mean 20% interest rates, which will destroy the value of your gold, bitcoin, land and no stock will be included directly into the AI productivity bounce.

You have to choose carefully, and perhaps the sooner you expect.

It is tired to think. And perhaps we should not.

This week, anthropic Propagated It is concluded that AI models suffer from “inverted scaling” – which is an AI model to say more time is given to think Malevolent Result.

AIS feels that there is a lot like humans, so we are probably suffering from reverse scaling.

If yes, now it can be time to follow Ozi’s advice – investment and everything else – and try your best to stay in the moment.

Let’s check the chart.

AI automation and GDP growth:

Select your level of AI Automation (X-Xis) and this chart of EPOCH AI will tell you what level of development of GDP is expected. TL; DR is that “the fraction of automated labor functions by AI does not need to be too much to achieve very large growth effects.” According to the chart, if only 20% of the tasks are automated, they expect GDP expects to grow at 10% unnecessary 10% per year.

Revenge of Dork:

The Reddit gang is back and this time he is betting on Dunkin Donuts, Opendoor, Rocket Companies and Kohl. Why are they four? I suspect that AI, one who knows all one, may also mean. But if you feel that AI is going to take all jobs, then roll the dice once at once

There is a lot of dice rolling now:

Data of Goldman Sachs shows that, as a percentage of overall activity, the most speculative shares have rarely more trading volumes. In form of IndicatorThis usually occurs rapidly before the recession.

Tariff has not slowed China’s export surge:

The more obvious reason for equity to be at a high level of all time is that the liberation day tariffs were not almost disruptive to the global economy, as was generally apprehensive. For example, China’s export, surge continues. The demonstration of strength may be why President Trump is Allegedly The deal is more prepared to give concessions to the deal.

China is flooding the world due to cars:

I’m glad we still have an auto industry in America, but if I can buy high quality EV $ 8,000I will.

Humans live in demand:

The wage tracker of Atlanta Fed shows us wages growing by 4.2% – still more than inflation (although measured).

Robots are not taking jobs yet:

Against the popular story, FT’s data analysts found that “there is no more likely to shed young workers in high -risk American jobs from generative AI, as Chat has been launched.” (As yet.)

false alarm:

Polymarket Speculators believe that the possibility of America going into recession this year is just up to 18%.

Relaxed familiarity:

The US economy is at the speed of growing 2.4% in Q3.

Can we grow soon on 10x?

It is worth thinking – but a long way from the forecast.

There is a great weekend, productive readers.

Get news in your inbox. Explore blockwork newsletters: