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“I am not afraid of computers. I am afraid of their deficiency.”
– Isaac Asimov
Bill Gates Hope Within a decade, humans will no longer require “for most things”.
We are entering an era of “free intelligence”, he explains, in which expertise in all subjects will be weakened – for example, the best doctors and teachers will be AIS.
“It’s so deep and even a little scary,” Gates told Harvard magazine, “Because it is happening very quickly, and there is no upper limit.”
East-Google CEO hearing Eric Schmidt Tell Even more scary is: “Within the next one year, the vast majority of the programmer will be replaced by the AI programmer.”
Within five years, he says, we will achieve artificial general intelligence, after which AIS will be smart as a top specialist in any field – and within six years we will get artificial. Very good Intelligence, where a single AI is more smart than the sum of all human intelligence.
He said, “There is no language for what happens with the arrival of this.”
But I will not worry too much yet – these predictions about the future and future, as Yogi Barra tells us, is difficult to predict.
Also, with evidence Present It is suggested that humans will not be so easily replaced.
For example, the founder of the cursor Said This week the AI code editor he has developed is now writing A billion lines of code daily.
This is a lot – almost more than the total lines of the code written by each software developer in the United States.
And yet, Labor Statistics Bureau Estimate The US still employs at least 1.6 million software developers.
It can be a change, who knows?
But if AI is already writing a billion lines of code without any effect on employment, I suspect that it is a sign that the human programmer still has many years of employment to look forward.
Another indicator: Microsoft is subscribed to copilot Allegedly Now a whole year has stabilized – which suggests that Copilot is actually a “AI partner” for human employees (as the company marks it) and not replacement for them.
Similarly, Openai Reports That chatgpt now has more than 400 million active weekly users – about 5%of the world’s population!
But I still have to type this newsletter myself.
LLMs are not taking any other jobs, either: “We have silent effects of AI on employment due to offsetting effects,” a Academic study Report. “Extremely exposed businesses experience relatively low demand than less exposed businesses, but the resulting growth in firm productivity increases overall employment in all businesses.”
Another study Similarly, it was found that despite being widely adopted by LLMS, “AI chatbots had no significant impact on any business or recorded hours in any business.”
So even the newspaper writers appear safe for now.
And even if not, we will probably meet something else.
Benedict Evans recently Recalling Long history of new techniques, high, no less, for employment, citing examples such as the invention of typewriters and adding machines: “What did the cleric do for employment? People hired more clerks.
Evans see the point that the huge floor of the human calculator worked by Jack Lemon the apartment Since then a spreadsheet has been replaced.
But using a spreadsheet, more people are still employed, which were compared to connecting machines anytime.
In some places, more concern is that there are there A lot of Jobs and Not enough People: Greece, for example, presented the six-day task week last year “due to the twin crisis of a shrinking population and lack of skilled workers,” as a guardian Informed it.
Similarly, at least the reason for continuous Lack of cheap houses In America, it is not available that enough humans are not available to make them.
It can definitely change.
Chatgpt may soon write this newsletter in a fast and better way – I have seen, I have seen, not without any tripidation, that it is gradually getting better for me to proof for personal sentences.
And even construction workers may be afraid of their job someday.
Analyst in Bank of America predict There 3 billion Humanoid robots roaming on the planet by 2060 are doing everything to take care of the elderly, from handling dangerous materials.
2060 is still a long route, however, and there is a possibility that we (such as Jack Lemon) may have found better things by then.
Meanwhile, however, let’s keep yourself busy by checking the chart.
How is this going on till now:
A simple but amazing chart: exactly one month after liberation day, the Nasdaq is 3.2% higher. That is…. What did I expect. In addition, it was liberation day One Month ago ??? Looks like 10 years.
All is not well in the markets, however:
Gold is up, the dollar is down and the oil is very low. It sounds more consistent with tomorrow news That tariff apple is $ 900 million per quarter and this morning cost news Japan is currently not interested in the trade deal on the proposal.
Zooming out:
The US moves forward in the dollar trends throughout the decade. Now with japan Threat To remove its mass stockpiles of the American Treasury, it is easy to see why the next trend can be down.
Firewall of the economy:
This morning’s report that the US added 177,000 jobs in April, which is encouraging, but definitely looking back, according to it Mark Zandi: “The job market remains a firewall amidst continuous growth and recession. But … the firewall seems delicate. The firewall will come down until the trade war occurs in the next few weeks, and the firewall will come down, and ensure a recession.”
Looking forward:
Torreston Slok has warned that this morning’s employment data was collected after the announcement of liberation day tariff and correlation from the data of the Michigan survey data suggests that employment is determined to be low and probably “negative”.
Don’t forget small people:
Apple can also tariff at a cost of 1 billion dollars per quarter, but may not do small business dependent on imports from China.
Congratulations to the class of 2025:
This chart of the Atlantic suggests that unlike historical criteria, recent college graduates now have higher unemployment rates than an average American. (I still trade places with them.)
It is cheap to stay in school, at least:
Bloomberg’s John Author note note that Kovid broke the multicidal uptrend at the cost of the college, which is now reduced.
Chance of recession:
Polymercate Auds are ticking, which seems strange what stocks are doing. One analyst Estimate The prices of that stock are now pricing in only 34% of the recession. There is even more dissatisfaction guess From Constance Hunter, the chief economist of The Economist Intelligence Unit, who puts the possibility at 80%.
Not a prediction:
Latest data The tracker shows exports from China from China, 48.6% a year ago from Vijayan’s global ocean booking. “Probably children will have two dolls instead of thirty,” president Said In response to this week. “Maybe two dolls will cost a few rupees more.”
It seems very slow for me – but perhaps he is right that boats “do not need luggage.”
As long as we keep the jobs we need, I think everyone will be cured with it.
Let’s hope what the markets are telling us.
There is a great weekend, naturally intelligent readers.
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