It is a section from 0xresearch newsletter. To read full versions, subscribe.
The below picture of Ukrainian President Volodimier Zelansky was recently from a NATO summit.
Is this wearing a suit zelenskyy?
New York Post Call it a suit, The Sun This is called “Sleek Black Suit”, and Roots This is called “suit-style jacket”.
But chat disagrees:
Under a narrow, traditional definition (lapels + matching trousers made of the same suiting fabric), this dress will not be called a suit. Jacket collar, patch pockets, utilitarian cuts, and overall “field” or “workwear” styling placed it out of classic suiting.
Anyway, the answer to that incredibly unqualified question is important – there is one Polymarket bets (“Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?”) With an open interest ride of $ 12 million.
Unfortunately for bookies, mainstream media opinions are not the last support of resolution on polymarkat – this decision is with UMA token holders.
Uma Whale is disputing that Zelansky wore a suit, so the market is currently cunning the 3% vested possibility of solving “yes” votes.
This, cheerful, activist spark Twitter “Zelancesi wore a suit,” pages accused of Oracle Capture, and some are said to be “suitgate”.
I am not here to referee the Zelanceci’s wardrobe debate.
I only want to tell that new prophecy markets are catching this problem and innovating in new ways to reduce this “purchase-truth” problem that can emerge on UMA.
Inside the exo market
Take the XO market, an upcoming prediction market, which is designed as a sovereign epichen using seleestia for data availability.
To eliminate Oracle Capture, the oral system of the XO market is designed to be AI-first. ORACLE questions “reliable API” and “algorithm data uses data recovery and machine learning, according to which it is objectively to determine the verification results,” white paper,
In the event of only a rare dispute, the resolution kicks a uniform jury system, where stacked exo token holders are selected randomly to take decisions. A quarrel polling mechanism is also applied to prevent the impact of any major token holder from dominating the market results.
Then the market resolves according to the majority of votes. Minority token holders are slipped.
The XO market also wants to be permitted, unlike polymarkat or Kalshi, where the market is subject to approval from central gatekeepers.
Think of a wedding between pump (dot) fun and polymercate, Ali Hbeh, co-founder of XO Market, tells me.
Any user with a hot tech can draft a question, define the resolution criteria, select any collateral, and determine a fee to earn on all trades, so good questions become a revenue stream.
To allow creators to use any tokens, they want liquidity to fission, but it enables various communities to start utility for their own tokens, which prefers to think of Habbebhe as a “punishment market”.
For a long tail of niche markets, for bootstrap liquidity, XO depends on a type of adaptive liquidity AMM, or some may be remembered as the liquidity-sensitive logistic market scoring rules (LS-LMSR) of the Ogur.
The general idea is that manufacturers start by planting a market for some dollars, then graduates to deep liquidity over time because the trading volume increases.
This design is contrary to the liquidity model of polymercate that depends on professional market makers. Therefore, the top markets are ignored until the manufacturers are sure that it is worth their capital.
“LMSR was very intensive and that is why Augur died,” Habbebah said to me, “This is the best pricing algorithm for the prediction markets and no one has used it.”
He said that an orderbook for adoption scales can eventually be used.
The XO market is launching Open Alpha this week.
The team recently emerged as one of the winners in the Maamthan Hacaton in Celesteia and later shut down the $ 500,000 east-seed round led by Cyber ​​Fund and Delphi Ventures.
Prediction market landscape
The alpha of the XO market comes under the backdrop of both the launch polymerket and Kalshi, which attains the unicorn position.
Bloomberg reported last week that the polymercate was Lift $ 200 million on an evaluation of $ 1 billion. On the other hand, Kalashi recently shut down the $ 185 million round led by a paradigm on a $ 2 billion evaluation.
Polymercate’s open interest has usually remained stable at a mark of $ 100 million- $ 120 million over the last several months.
Get news in your inbox. Explore blockwork newsletters:
