The bookies on the Crypto prediction platform polymercate have developed a significant reputation for the beating of bookies, in recent months.
So it came as a surprise on Thursday when he really got the result of the Pope Conclave very wrong.
The winner Robert Francis was not one of the prevost favorite, in which bookies only gave the US -born Cardinal a 1% chance to make Pope Francis a success before the result.
Like traditional betting markets, polymercate bookies gave the highest obstacles 28%to cardinal pitro paroline.
More than $ 28 million Apart from prevost, the bets placed on other candidates, the result was a total wipeout for many bookies.
The incident questions the alleged height accuracy of betting markets such as Poymerate in traditional elections.
Polymarkets allow users to bet on the results of everything from football fixtures to political elections. Unlike traditional betting platforms, where the house sets obstacles based on its best diligence, polymerkets are a real -time reflection of bets placed by users.
Simply put, the more demand will be demanded for a certain result, the prices paid for higher obstacles and bets.
In November, Polymarkets achieved the mainstream infamous when bookies gave Republican candidate Donald Trump significantly more obstacles than other sources to win the US presidential post.
Coleman Stumpf, a professor at Vake Forest University in Northern Carolina, told coindsk at the time, “Paulmarket prices are wrapping the ideas of smart money very well,” at that time the coindsk said, seeing that the polymercate batteries are a slight increase in predicting the election results.
A historical data analysis performed by Data scientist Alex Maculo based in New York City showed that Polymarket had previously predicted the result of world events for a month with 90% accuracy.
what went wrong?
Polymarket speculators Papal Concomave Results so wrong that this incident is very difficult, one of the top pseudo -names of Domor, polymercate, Said On X.
“It is like walking in a shop that does not communicate with the outside world,” he said. “Even participants will not know how to disable it.”
Since it is difficult for bookies to find an edge with such esoteric conditions, many people are likely to follow the opinion of traditional betting markets and media, resulting in a close alignment of obstacles between polymercate and other betting markets. Betfare,
The rarity of Papal Conclave must also make things difficult.
Pope Francis, the previous Pope, was appointed in 2013, was present in blockchain-based betting platforms such as polymercate. It is also possible that many polymercate bookies had no pre -betting experience on the incident.
Political elections, where polymerkets have reached close to the results, are much more frequent and widely understood.
According to Domar, the real edge in betting on Papal Conclave is not selecting the right candidate, but is betting against people with too much obstacles.
He chalked out the high obstacles of heavy favorite Paroline, and cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who gave polymercate bookies 20% of the chance to win, for their popularity with the public and the media.
“Pricing for paroline and tagel was very high, and was not high for very good reasons,” he said.
Read more: Polymarket is 90% accurate in predicting world events: Research
