The future of zaporizhzhia: nuclear crisis or promise?

Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, has provoked concern because Russian soldiers barely occupied it for two weeks in the 2022 invasion. But recently, after three years of possession and Frequent Mrs. This threatened the radiological disaster, a promise of numbness suddenly came to view, although briefly. In March 19, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodimier Zelanski discussed US protection and investment for Ukraine’s nuclear power- or even ownership, discussed, or even ownership, White House summary, International nuclear power agency , Within the “months” of a ceasefireAnd the plant can be completely operational in a year.

Zaporizhzhia promise a rapid restart, which has six 950-megavat reactors, quickly Ukrainian cities faded between daily and deadly Russian attacks. Still chief executive DescendantUkraine’s nuclear power utility, Essentially supported the grass’s timeline for a demilitered landscape in an interview this monthEven when he accepted serious technical challenges, including deferred maintenance and lack of cold water.

In fact, according to Ukrainian, European and America-based experts interviewed IEEE spectrumFacing challenges Zaporizhajia nuclear power plant (Znpp) revival can go very deeply. Those experts say that Russia Operation Plant Can be so badly damaged This can take years to repair and take billions of dollars. Especially problems include the potential tilt of reactor buildings, and the pressure of the plant pressure, the integrity of the complex and relatively delicate steam generators for light-water reactors.

Even if there is a permanent termination of enmity, rehearsing the reactor-generator units of the Znpp may be able to spend Ukraine. And at least some Ukrainian energy experts say the country should focus instead Building small, decentralized power plants,

Volodimir KudritskyFormer director of Ukraine’s Power Grid Operator, said more as last month During a platform in MIT last monthKudritsky said that large nuclear power plants focus a lot of power in some places in the grid: “We are able to use this Soviet heritage to survive, but this is not the way forward.”

Suspected operational practices may have damaged the plant

Since the full -scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine, ZNPP experienced a wide range of unprecedented insults. During his armed seizure in March 2022, Russian forces opened fire on the plant. In that October, Russia began bombing the Ukrainian power system. Those attacks repeatedly cut the Znpp from Ukraine’s grid, forcing the use of diesel generators to provide electricity to the pumps, which transmit water to the fuel spent, preventing it overheating and potentially melting and releasing large amounts of radiation.

Russian Invasion Some equipment is destroyed and stressed on others, but special concern arises from unprecedented long -term operating mode: Hot shutdown And Cold shutdown,

ZNpp is the world’s first nuclear power plant to remain in a position of a hot shutdown, in which the plant operates on a minimum output. Finally violated the license of ZNPP, a continuous warm shutdown for months. But Russian plant managers stressed that it provided the necessary steam to maintain important equipment, such as water treatment plant, as well as heating for a nearby city Anerhodar, Too Under Russian Business.

Ukrainian and international security experts instead argued that the hot shutdown unnecessarily increased the risk of an accident, causing a regional devastation, as the hot reactor melted more quickly after the cooling system failed. Increased risk seen as ukrainians A form of atom blackmailArguing that Russian forces could deliberately remove a radiological phenomenon if they were forced to retreat from the region.

In April 2024, the Russian management of the plant finally trusted, Keep the final operating generating unit in cold shutdownCold shutdown is a safe mode for the plant, but, nevertheless, many aspects of cold shutdown are highly uncommon and inciting anxiety.

These concerns stems from a complex combination of chemistry and physics. Cooling flows during cold shutdowns are low in some loops -and relatively calm, falling below 35 in some cases ° C.

The result is one Cooling with high density. Ukrainian nuclear expert George Balakan It is said that high density coolant puts delicate tubes within more mechanical load and steam generators on cooling pipes. This elevated load, in turn, increases stress on multiple welds, as well as on steel pipes as their metal is low at low temperatures, according to Balakan.

Low temperature and flow, meanwhile, also affects boric acid that is added to primary cooling water to regulate the reactor. Fundamental reactions, allow boric acid to crystallize in sensitive areas of primary circuit pipes and into steam generators. Efforts to purify the crystal can then increase damage. If the damage performs the steam generator tubes, the boorated water may leak and attack through the steel of the secondary cooling circuit, which is of a lower grade.

Russian officials who control ZNPP have IAEA supervisors reported a series of leaksWith the steam generator leak in half of its electricity units. Balacan, a former Special Advisor to the Chairman of the Ukrainian nuclear utility Energotom, is the teltell signals of physical and chemical attacks on plant equipment. “Russia did the work as if they could conduct water-regional rule for unlimited time,” they say.

Independent experts contacted IEEE spectrum Confirmed the analysis of Balakan. He is a senior American nuclear engineer acquainted with the Soviet-Deejine reactors who spoke Spectrum On the condition of anonymity, because he feared vengeance from national authorities, and a Ukrainian engineer who is not authorized to talk to the press.

Steam-generator issues can close the nuclear plant for good. Utility when the landscape was played in California in 2013 Southern California EdisonScattered its only nuclear power plant After repairing the bottled steam generator, which costs around $ 2 billion ($ 2.7 billion 2025 dollars,

Another set of potentially expensive issues in groundwater from the shift of operators for cooling after the demolition of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023. Potential implications include an important security system: reactor control rods.

After the drainage of the Kakhovka reservoir, the cooling of the Znpp was eliminated the original source of water, RoshetomeRussian nuclear production and technology group, drilled 11 wells on the site. Refrain the landWater is the cause of concern, according to Aybars GurpinarA former top security officer International nuclear power agency (IAEA). “Especially when significant groundwater extraction occurs, settlement is always a possibility,” written Gürpinar, Now a advisory located in Vienna and Brussels in an email Spectrum,

Subsidetene includes ZNPP, there have been many expensive headaches for Soviet-designed VVR-1000 reactors. About 20 years ago, Energoatom had to attach a counterweight to arrest the inclination of several reactor buildings settled in the sandy soil of the site, According to 2024 LinkedIn Post by BalakanIn 2011, Rosatom told the then President Dimitri Medvedev that “plans to fix it”Progress“In Balcovo and Kalinin Power Plant.

Gürpinar says that tilting can crack the concrete base of Znpp and interfere with the reactor control rods, allowing the fragmentation reactions during station blackout to slow down their gravitational-operated drops in the reactor. He says that the rods can also “get stuck”, forcing operators to control the reactor and rely on boric acid to leave them without backup control.

In a statement SpectrumRosatom said He: “No grassroots change or sub -part signs have been observed.”