key takeaways:
-
The BTC killed $ 97,900 due to the demand of an institutional investor, but futures pricing suggests that traders are not confident in a constant rally.
-
Macroeconomic Risk and Global Trade Tension Cap Bulish Bhavna to Spot BTC ETF inflow despite $ 3.6 billion.
-
BTC options bends, expecting big players upside down, but their precautions are low.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell out of a tight trading range between $ 93,000 and $ 95,600 on 1 May on 1 May. Despite reaching its highest price in ten weeks at $ 97,930, BTC remains neutral according to derivative indicators. This price action is accompanied by a significant pure flow in the US spot exchange-traded bitcoin funds (ETFs).
Some disappointment among traders may be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which has begun to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders are concerned that, despite increasing interest from institutional investors, an economic downturn may limit the price performance. This concern reduces the possibility of reaching BTC to $ 110,000 or more in 2025.
The annual premium for a two -month futures of bitcoin remains between 6% and 7% compared to the previous week, which remains within a neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when Bitcoin was trading near $ 95,000 and the futures premium was above 10%, the traders’ spirit has weakened. This data suggests that more than $ 100,000 and higher value is less optimism, or at least confidence.
Gold performance eliminates the slight advantage of bitcoin
Some market participants point to the 20% rally of gold, as a source of concern from $ 2,680 to $ 3,220. However, Bitcoin has recently crossed the $ 1.8 trillion market captilation of Silver to become the seventh largest global tradable asset, which has increased from a valuation of $ 21.7 trillion dollars, which has abolished this achievement. Investors are concerned that the strong correlation of bitcoin with the stock market has reduced its “Digital Gold” appeal.
There is also a possibility that in the last two weeks the US Spot ETF is being powered by a $ 3.6 billion delta-neutral strategies in net flows. In this scenario, the flow indicates bitcoin holders to go to the listed products or use derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on the price will be limited, which corresponds to a slight 5% profit of bitcoin during this period.
To determine whether professional traders are comfortable with bitcoins around $ 97,500, it is helpful in checking the BTC option market.
The BTC option 25% delta slant metric is currently near its lowest level since February 15, showing that whales and market manufacturers are assigning higher obstacles from here to and upside down. This is a sharp reversal three weeks ago, when traded (selling) options at a premium.
Connected: Bitcoin uncertain as a slowdown of recession, US-China tariff dialogue kick closed
The flexibility of bitcoin derivatives is further in favor of BTC price profit
Overall, bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further value gains, but are avoiding using the bull leverage. Some people may argue that it creates ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially on 9 April. The Retest of $ 74,500 did not significantly affect the BTC derivatives.
The most important factor affecting the performance of bitcoin remains a commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, bitcoin is likely to keep an eye on S&P 500 movements. Although this atmosphere can prevent bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near period, BTC derivatives are currently bending slightly to the bull’s side.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intention and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The ideas, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and not necessarily reflected or represented the ideas and ideas of the components.
